Posts Tagged FOMC

FOMC Minutes – August 31, 2010

Integral version.

In general, something for everybody. Looks like it puzzled the markets, but I think the focus tomorrow will be on FOMC unwillingness (for the time being) to “resume large-scale asset purchases”. My take:

Economic outlook. Little bit too positive in my view.

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FOMC Introduces Further Leg Of Quantitative Easing

And we have QE 1.1. Lite. Direct monetization. Basic money printing. I’m surprised FED reacted so fast.

To help support the economic recovery in a context of price stability, the Committee will keep constant the Federal Reserve’s holdings of securities at their current level by reinvesting principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in longer-term Treasury securities. The Committee will continue to roll over the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities as they mature.

FED Press Release.

The pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed.

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Waiting For The FED…

We have a slow day today with no economic data in the U.S. Europe is trading on average up 1.5%, U.S. futures are up 0.3%, so it looks U.S. markets are not going to follow European lead.

Sell side macro economists are following Goldman’s (brilliant) Jan Hatzius lead and reducing GDP growth both for second half of 2010 and 2011.

Consensus in the meantime moved to forecast quantitative easing  extension in a form of FED reinvesting matured MBS proceedings into U.S. government securities. Code name; QE 1.1 Lite. Some research even suggest that the program could be introduced during tomorrow’s FOMC meeting.

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FOMC Statement, June 23 2010

Negative tone added to the statement, making a rise in federal funds rate even more distant opportunity.

FED Press Release.

Economy improving, but the financial conditions less supportive because of developments abroad.

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the economic recovery is proceeding and that the labor market is improving gradually. Household spending is increasing but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software has risen significantly; however, investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts remain at a depressed level. Financial conditions have become less supportive of economic growth on balance, largely reflecting developments abroad. Bank lending has continued to contract in recent months. Nonetheless, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be moderate for a time.

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FOMC Statement, April 28 2010

Nothing major. FED Press Release.

Economic activity picking up; Business spending improving; Construction spending not; Labor market beginning to improve.

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the labor market is beginning to improve. Growth in household spending has picked up recently but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software has risen significantly; however, investment in nonresidential structures is declining and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts have edged up but remain at a depressed level. While bank lending continues to contract, financial market conditions remain supportive of economic growth. Although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be moderate for a time, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.

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“Exceptionally Low Federal Funds Rate For Extended Period” Encore

“Exceptionally Low Federal Funds Rate For Extended Period” still here; FED funds rate stays at 0%-0.25% in 9:1 vote with Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig voting again against.

Economic activity picking up; high unemployment; business spending is recovering; housing relapse:

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“Exceptionally Low Federal Funds Rate For Extended Period” Still Here

FED just released that the benchmark rate remains unchanged. The “extended period” is still here.

Business conditions are improving but at subdued rate:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the deterioration in the labor market is abating. Household spending is expanding at a moderate rate but remains constrained by a weak labor market, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software appears to be picking up, but investment in structures is still contracting and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Firms have brought inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. While bank lending continues to contract, financial market conditions remain supportive of economic growth. Although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be moderate for a time, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.

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FED Leaves Federal Funds Rate Unchanged

The target rate remains the same; extended period phrase is here:

The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.

Overall economic situation continued to improve, but with high unemployment and large output gap:

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FOMC Statement 04 Nov 2009

Nothing new material in the statement. FED press release.

Higlihts:

Conditions in financial markets were roughly unchanged, on balance, over the intermeeting period. Activity in the housing sector has increased over recent months. Household spending appears to be expanding but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, sluggish income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment and staffing, though at a slower pace; they continue to make progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales.

FED expect inflation to be subdued:

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