Posts Tagged ‘FED’

FOMC Statement – April 25, 2012

As expected, a non-event.

Statement wording mostly unchanged, federal funds rates at exceptionally low levels at least through late 2014.

A full statement with changes tracked bellow.

FOMC Statement – January 25, 2012

Statement wording unchanged, federal funds rates at exceptionally low levels at least through late 2014.

Monthly Strategy – January 2012

The consensus with which I agree is that the Euro zone is heading into a recession. While the economic activity has somewhat improved over the last months in the U.S. I remain doubtful whether the U.S. can escape the recession when Europe enters one. The data coming from China doesn’t (jet) point to a hard landing. For the time being it looks like that the Chinese government is in control. The measures to contain inflation and raising real-estate prices are successful, while in the same time China is has taken early steps to increase domestic consumption and re-balance the economy. One should not disregard and keep close watch on soft data coming from China especially in real estate and commodity related industries which are not reflected in the official data and could be pointing to serious issues.

FOMC Minutes – October 12, 2011

This is fun. A colorful discussion with lots of opposing views.

Monthly Strategy – October 2011

Leading economic indicators are pointing to a recession. At the time being it looks like it could be a mild one, but taken into account all the unknowns (EMU future, China slowdown, bank balance-sheet question) it could easily develop into something more ominous.

FOMC Statement – September 21, 2011

Actions as expected: operation twist has started. The committee has described the economic condition much more negatively then expected.

FOMC Minutes – August 30, 2011

Looks like we have some eager FOMC members, so I suspect that we will have a serious discussion on QE 3 during the next FOMC meeting which will be held on 20th and 21st September.

Bernanke Jackson Hole Speech – A Big Nothing

In short – A big nothing

FOMC Statement – August 9, 2011

Most important sentence: “The Committee currently anticipates that economic conditions–including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run–are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013.” Economic growth so far this year has been considerably slower than the Committee had expected.

Three dissenters!!!

Monthly Strategy – August 2011

Global economic growth is clearly slowing down.

FOMC Statement – June 22, 2011

FED acknowledged the recent slowdown in economic growth but the committee believes slowdown is only temporary. Committee expects that the pace of recovery will pick up and inflation rate subside to levels at or below those consistent with the FED’s dual mandate.
Asset purchases will be completed this month.

No indications of any new policies (jet).

Monthly Strategy – May 2011

Mostly unchanged from April…

FOMC Statement – April 27, 2011

As expected: rising commodity prices increased inflation but the effect are only transitory, asset purchase programs will be completed as scheduled, extended period formulation still here.

FOMC Minutes – April 5, 2011

Inflation is transitory (whatever that means), no sign of removing “extended period” formulation, asset purchasing program to be completed.

Monthly Strategy – April 2011

I have lost flair in making predictions. I even started to think that correct forecasting is impossible. Maybe it is better to look at forecasting only as to the extent “what if” exercise. That’s why this is the first strategy post this year.

I have to come to conclusion that the only relevant judgement on is made by market and this is the key in being a successful in this line of business. What is fair, what is right or what is logical are completely irrelevant questions in speculating. Fundamentals are most of the time only a peripheral factors affecting the prices; in fact fundamentals are major factor only in times of great excesses.

Now, lets get back to writing down my current mind setup.


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