Global Macro Perspectives
(Week Ending August 13, 2010) ECRI Weekly Leading Index for week ending August 13 was reported down 10.0%. Prior reading was revised from -9.8% to -10.2%. Contrary to Conference Board LEI, ECRI Weakly Leading Index is pointing to a recession. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
ECRI Weekly Leading Index for week ending August 6 was reported down 9.8%. Prior reading was at -10.3%. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
ECRI Weekly Leading Index for week ending July 30 was reported down 10.3%. Prior reading was at -10.7%. So, that’s probably it for this time… Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
ECRI Weekly Leading Index is down 10.7%. Prior reading was at -10.5%. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
We have crossed the -10.0% critical level which has historically predicted recession with 100% accuracy. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
We are just 0.2% shy of -10.0% critical level which has historically predicted recession with 100% accuracy. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
Well, we are just shy of critical level of -10.0% level despite improving initial jobless claims and equity market bounce. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
A reading of -10.% was historically 100% correct predictor of a recession. At todays level the track record is, if my memory serves right, 7 recession of 8 times reading this low. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
The usefulness of ECRI weekly leading index is widely debated today. The debate was started by Bank of America Merrill Lynch biased report: ECRI: Not the “Holy Grail”. David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff + Associates in todays Breakfast with Dave: What is fascinating is how the ECRI, which was celebrated by Wall Street research houses a year ago, […]