Global Macro Perspectives
Crude stocks rose 3.5 million barrels; Gasoline stocks were down 0.4 million barrels; Distillate stocks fell 2.5 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks fell 0.5 million barrels; Other oils stocks fell 2.5 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were down 4.3 million barrels.
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 7.3%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index was unchanged for the week.
The consensus with which I agree is that the Euro zone is heading into a recession. While the economic activity has somewhat improved over the last months in the U.S. I remain doubtful whether the U.S. can escape the recession when Europe enters one. The data coming from China doesn’t (jet) point to a hard landing. For the time being it looks like that the Chinese government is in control. The measures to contain inflation and raising real-estate prices are successful, while in the same time China is has taken early steps to increase domestic consumption and re-balance the economy. One should not disregard and keep close watch on soft data coming from China especially in real estate and commodity related industries which are not reflected in the official data and could be pointing to serious issues.
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 3.0%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 12.1%.
The price of crude oil is shaped on one side with fears of global economic slowdown and on the other side western countries efforts to discourage Iranian crude oil buying. In my view, geopolitical risks are keeping the price high.
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 3.0%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 12.1%.
The rumors are that Saudis had to unload record amounts of physical crude to the markets (from their hedges) because of lack of able counter parties to roll the positions due to shortage of credit.
Number of crude oil drilling rigs in the U.S. rose for 28 in the last month; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 57.
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 8.1%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 2.1%.
Order-book is shrinking fast with high delivery count and abundant cancellations looming. We are probably looking at couple catastrophic years for the industry ahead.
Crude oil market looks well balanced. Future economic conditions and consequent commodity demand are key here.
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 0.8%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 3.0%.
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 0.6%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 3.4%.
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 1.4%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell -2.4%.
Crude oil supply and demand remain balanced. Crude had a tremendous run and it’s starting to look overextended. Brent WTI price spread narrowed on the reversal of Seaway pipeline.
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 1.3%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell -1.7%.
