Posts Tagged Consumer Confidence
It’s All About The Free Money (In the Markets)
Posted by Belisarius in Markets on February 25, 2010
We have clear roll over of leading indicators in recent weeks and a deterioration in housing, jobless claims, durable goods orders today and bad consumer confidence reading.
Seems that the markets do not appreciate the data. Things that move the markets are only FED policy on rates, dollar strength and Greece debt problems. China credit tightening in forgotten for the time being (at least to the next announcement).
All dough I’m convinced that the economy is deteriorating almost everywhere except in China and in their commodity based economy satellites I have only a small exposure to the markets (via a June SPY 105/106 put ratio backspread) to keep me interest for the markets. I do not have a clear conviction short term.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Edges Down
Posted by Belisarius in Markets on February 23, 2010
Markets are down, the negative surprise was Conference Board Consumer Confidence which came out at 46 vs. 55 consensus and 56.5 for January.
Chart 1. Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Source: Bloomberg
Press release.
Consumers’ assessment of current-day conditions soured in February. Those claiming conditions are “good” decreased to 6.2 percent from 8.5 percent, while those claiming business conditions are “bad” increased to 46.3 percent from 44.7 percent. Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was also more pessimistic. Those saying jobs are “hard to get” rose to 47.7 percent from 46.5 percent, while those saying jobs are “plentiful” decreased to 3.6 percent from 4.4 percent.
Consumer Confidence Edges Up
Posted by Belisarius in Markets on January 26, 2010
Consumer confidence increased in January to 55.9 vs. December’s 53.6 and a consensus of 53.5.
Chart 1. Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Source: Bloomberg
When I Was Away
Posted by Belisarius in Markets on January 18, 2010
I was away from the computer and away from the markets, so let me recap most important developments.
- MBA purchase applications were up 0.8% vs. 3.6% the week before.
- Retail sales in December disappointed coming out at -0.3% vs. 0.4% consensus and 1.3% in November.
- Initial jobless claims edged up reaching 444.000 vs. 437.000 consensus and 434.000 the week before.
- Business inventories rose 0.4% in November vs. o.2% consensus and 0.2% in October.
- CPI for December came right at the consensus of 0.1% vs. 0.4% in November.
- Industrial production for December also right at the consensus of 0.6% vs. 0.8% in November.
Consumer Confidence & Home Prices
Posted by Belisarius in Markets, U.S. Housing on December 29, 2009
Belisarius has a quite severe case of cold, so light posting today.
Consumer confidence for December came out at 53 vs. 52.9 consensus and 49.5 prior reading.
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices came out flat. Since the indexes are three month rolling averages, fatigue in house price recovery is evident.
Chart 1. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Source: Standard & Poor's and Fiserv
Abu Dhabi Rushes To The Rescue
Posted by Belisarius in Markets on December 14, 2009
Looks like Nakheel PJSC bonds will be paid off in full. Bloomberg link: Abu Dhabi Bails Out Dubai World With $10 Billion.The move has prevented Asian stock exchanges from going into negative territory; Europe is trading up around 1% in average.
Short follow up on last weeks U.S. economic data: Jobless claims ticked up reaching 474.000 vs. 460.000 consensus and 457.000 the week before; Trade deficit was lower at $-32.9bn than expected ($-36.4bn) and last reported ($-36.5bn); Consumer sentiment for December surprised to the upside coming out at 73.4 vs. 68.2 consensus and 67.4 in October; Business inventories in October rose 0.2% vs. consensus of -0.2%, and -0.4% in December; Retail sales rose 1.3% in November, the consensus was at 0.9%, prior reading for October at 1.4%; Retail sales ex-autos rose 1.2% vs. the consensus of 0.5% and a prior reading of 0.2%.
Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Drops
Posted by Belisarius in Markets on October 27, 2009
Consumer confidence unexpectedly drops to 47.7 vs. 53.1 last month and 54 consensus. The streak of negative signs (just signs for the time being) continues.
Source: Bloomberg
Back In The Saddle
Posted by Belisarius in Markets on October 6, 2009
It has been nice away from the computers, markets and problems last week spent at the sea. I’ve visited 5 countries, 7 towns and I was most impressed by Spain and Barcelona.
I was pretty pissed when a saw my SPY put options position being sold on the Monday market opening on the back of a stop loss order I left when I was leaving for vacation. I hate leaving my positions unattended but hate even more earning + 15% instead of +50%. Never mind, it looks at the moment I could have an opportunity to enter into same position at the approximately same costs.
Has S&P 500 Reached The Short Term Top?
Posted by Belisarius in Markets on August 26, 2009
Despite better than consensus data on US housing suggesting recovery in housing prices and better than consensus consumer confidence the market failed to rally.
Chart 1. S&P 500
S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index rose 2.9% in Q2 compared with Q1. Average home prices are still down 30.2% from their top. Despite one can argue that the pickup in prices is influenced by seasonal effects and government measures it’s one of first measures that show some meaningful improvement. Of course we have to keep in mind that the backlog of unsold homes is still at 9.4 months sales vs. 4 months normal level and we are far away from norms, but it looks the market is consolidating.