Posts Tagged Bank of Japan
Monthly Strategy – February 2010
Posted by Belisarius in Monthly Strategy on February 1, 2010
Equities
We have seen a meaningful correction in equities in recent couple of weeks, we have a market that fails to react to presumably good news, we have low levels of cash in equity mutual funds and still high number of bulls; high beta stocks suffered massively; For me this is a setup for reversal, I expect further short term losses.
My mid-term view remains unchanged – this is just a bear market rally; U.S. and E.U. economies will experience same patterns in both economy and markets as Japan in ‘90ies.
Monthly Strategy – December 2009
Posted by Belisarius in Monthly Strategy on December 2, 2009
I am starting a monthly strategy overview to have my strategy in one place and a to test accuracy of my views. Written revisions and accommodations would also contribute to my investment discipline.
Equities
I have been surprised by the market strength as the market rejected the Dubai turmoil as a correction catalyst. This has substantially changed my views on the markets. The belief (in my view incorrect) that the economy will start recovering at average post recovery rates is strong. The Dubai spurred correction has only proved to be a buying opportunity. Because of that I wouldn’t exclude S&P 500 moving ahead of 1200 points. I would also expect short-term equity strength on both global and emerging markets level.
Return To The Carry Trade
Posted by Belisarius in Markets on December 1, 2009
Back to norm. Dubai World announced debt restructuring talks on (only) $26 billion debt, and the crowd has gone wild. WSJ story (with nice interactive extras): Dubai World in Talks on Debt Restructuring. The dollar is falling again, risky assets are rising and the saga continues.
New addition to the situation is The Bank of Japan surprise meeting last night and a announcement of new 10 trillion yen ($115 billion) lending program to commercial banks. Bloomberg story: BOJ to Provide 10 Trillion Yen in Emergency Credit. The market has viewed the move as a prelude to moving to real quantitative easing. As Jen is a second carry trade currency of choice this send the currency down, and all risky assets up.
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