Posts Tagged Baltic Dry Index
Dry Bulk Weekly – July 24, 2010
Posted by Belisarius in Commodities, Dry Bulk Weekly on July 24, 2010
Baltic dry index rose 6.2% last week; Capesize Index gained 1.9%; Panamax Index rose 12.9%; Supramax and Handysizes Indexes gained 4.6% and 3.6% respectively.
Commodore Research July 21, 2010:
One of the most troubling signs in the Chinese economy at the moment is therecent (and relatively long-lasting) decline in steel prices. Steel prices have fallen consistently since theend of April, even while stockpiles and production levels have remained firm. In recent weeks, though,steel output has decreased moderately but has remained at historically robust levels. Last week’s declinein steel prices was one of the smallest week-on-week declines since April, however, and steel prices maybe on the verge of finding support.
Baltic Dry Index At 1761, Up 1.7%
Posted by Belisarius in China, Commodities, Markets on July 20, 2010
Floating at (a temporary) bottom…
Chart 1. Baltic Dry Index
Source: Bloomberg
Baltic Dry Index At 1732, Up 0.7%
Posted by Belisarius in China, Commodities on July 19, 2010
Not looking particularly strong…
Chart 1. Baltic Dry Index
Source: Bloomberg
Dry Bulk Weekly – July 18, 2010
Posted by Belisarius in Commodities, Dry Bulk Weekly on July 18, 2010
Baltic dry index fell 9.6% last week; The hardest hit were Capesizes with 20.3% loss; Supramaxes and Handysizes and lost 8.1% and 5.9%; Panamaxes gained 7.6%.
Spot cargo demand fell last week, looks like everybody’s playing wait and see game. Nothing that could reverse the losses on the horizon.
Chart 1. Baltic Dry Indexes Relative Performance
Source: Bloomberg
Chart 2. Baltic Dry Index
Source: Bloomberg
Chart 3. Baltic Dry Index Components
Source: Bloomberg
Baltic Dry Index At 1720, Up 1.2%
Posted by Belisarius in China, Commodities on July 16, 2010
And the slide is over…
Chart 1. Baltic Dry Index
Source: Bloomberg
Baltic Dry Index At 1700, Down 0.5%
Posted by Belisarius in China, Commodities on July 15, 2010
Down only 0.5%.
Chart 1. Baltic Dry Index
Source: Bloomberg
Baltic Dry Index At 1709, Down 4.5%
Posted by Belisarius in China, Commodities, Markets on July 14, 2010
As I wrote in Dry Bulk Weekly it appears that Chinese removal of steel export tax rebates is a complete game changer for the industry. The slowdown in Chinese iron ore imports is easing port congestion which tied approximately 20% of the world fleet a few weeks ago. The port congestion has since then eased by a third. New-building deliveries were also strong in the first half of the year. All this has change the dry bulk demand/supply balance really fast. It’s hard to imagine a recovery in rates with this kind of fundamentals setup.
Chart 1. Baltic Dry Index
Baltic Dry Index At 1790, Down 2.7%
Posted by Belisarius in China, Commodities on July 13, 2010
Again down…
Chart 1. Baltic Dry Index
Source: Bloomberg
Baltic Dry Index At 1840, Down 3.3%
Posted by Belisarius in China, Commodities, Markets on July 12, 2010
Again down… Longest loosing streak in nine years.
Chart 1. Baltic Dry Index
Source: Bloomberg
Dry Bulk Weekly – July 11, 2010
Posted by Belisarius in China, Commodities, Dry Bulk Weekly on July 11, 2010
Baltic dry index fell 16.6% last week; The hardest hit were Panamaxes with 20.6% loss; Capesizes lost 20.0% ; Handysizes and Supramaxes lost 10.3% and 8.9%.
Chinese tax rebates on hot-rolled coil and some cold-rolled coil and galvanized products will be removed starting July 15. This makes Chinese steel exports uncompetitive and it is moving the markets. Chinese steel mils now have to choose whether to reduce capacity and cost or go bankrupt.
Both steel and iron ore prices are falling due to the removal of tax rebates. Forward steel curve for some steel grades in China has moved to backwardation (spot prices higher than future prices). So, I suppose they have to liquidate inventory (and they have plenty of it) at fire-sale prices.