Tanker Weekly | Tainted Alpha

Japan earthquake effects: I seems that Japanese crude oil demand will initially fall because one fifth of Japanese refinery capacity is offline, but subsequently will rise fast because only possible substitution to nuclear electricity generation (one fourth off-line and years needed to bring it back on-line) is gas and oil-fired generation. Product demand (residual fuel oil and diesel fuel especially) will rise fast in coming days.

To sum up, near term positive for product tankers, negative for crude oil carriers. Longer term positive for both. Positive for LNG carriers.

Tanker Weekly – March 6, 2011

March 6th, 2011 by Belisarius

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 20.3%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index was up 12.7%.

As I wrote earlier civil war in Libya is driving rates up. Under the assumption European imports of Libyan crude will be replaced by West Africa crude and West African crude exported to Far East substituted with Saudi crude the distance to which crude is transported could be actually reduced. So, when the tankers reposition according to the new transport setup, what remains is only uncertainty driving the markets.

Tanker Weekly – February 26, 2011

February 26th, 2011 by Belisarius

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 11.8%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index was up 11.7%.

As with everything happening this week this was also caused by Libya unrest/civil war. Libya crude oil was primarily exported to nearby markets, so drop in Libya production will have to be substituted from producing countries which are more distant. This caused a rise in shipping rates which will probably continue.

Tanker Weekly – February 19, 2011

February 19th, 2011 by Belisarius

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 10.5%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index was up 3.6%.

The demand is somewhat stronger, but my guess is that supply will emerge and rates will remain range bound.

Tanker Weekly – February 14, 2011

February 14th, 2011 by Belisarius

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 5.7%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 3.5%.

Some supply/demand tightens into the end of February, but my guess is that supply will emerge and rates will remain range bound.

Tanker Weekly – February 5, 2011

February 5th, 2011 by Belisarius

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 1.5%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 1.7%.

Again: too many available ships for the cargoes offered. We could see some positive freight rate developments if Egypt unrests affect Suez canal normal operation.

Tanker Weekly – January 30, 2011

January 30th, 2011 by Belisarius

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 0.9%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 1.7%.

My comment remains the same: too many available ships for the cargoes offered. We could see some positive freight rate developments if Egypt unrests affect Suez canal normal operation.

Tanker Weekly – January 23, 2011

January 23rd, 2011 by Belisarius

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 7.6%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 0.2%.

My comment remains the same: too many available ships for the cargoes offered. From the crude oil demand side it also feels the bullishness from the end of the last year has abated.

Tanker Weekly – January 16, 2011

January 16th, 2011 by Belisarius

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 7.3%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 2.4%.
Markets well supplied with ships available, clean rates probably rose on clean products being shipped to tight West European markets.