Archive for category Markets
ECRI Weekly Leading Index Down 10.7%
Posted by Belisarius in Markets, U.S. Economic Data on July 30, 2010
ECRI Weekly Leading Index is down 10.7%. Prior reading was at 10.5%.
Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
Source: Bloomberg
Mind The Gap
Posted by Belisarius in Markets, U.S. Economic Data on July 30, 2010
It remains to be seen whether the today’s U.S. GDP reading (for Q2) will flash slowdown, but no doubt remains that this quarter (Q3) will be ugly.
Chart 1. Consumer Metrics Institute‘s Growth Index vs. Official Quarterly GDP Growth Rates
Source: Consumer Metrics Institute
Lower Highs, Higher Lows
Posted by Belisarius in Markets on July 29, 2010
This is supposed to be bearish.
Chart 1. S&P 500
Source: Bloomberg
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes Rose in May
Posted by Belisarius in Markets, U.S. Housing on July 27, 2010
S&P/Case-Shiller HPI 10 city composite rose 1.7% in May; S&P/Case-Shiller 20 HPI composite rose 1.3% in May.
Seasonly adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller HPI 10 city composite rose 0.5%; Seasonly adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller HPI 20 city composite also rose 0.5%.
Chart 1. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 10
Source: S&P/Case-Shiller
Chart 2. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20
Source: S&P/Case-Shiller
German Banks Unwilling To Release Sovereign Debt Holdings
Posted by Belisarius in Markets on July 26, 2010
Today’s Financial Times front-page: Germany accused of reneging on bank tests.
The tests – designed to restore nervous markets’ faith in European banks, shaken by the near-default of Greece this year – were supposed to be accompanied by full disclosure of each bank’s sovereign debt holdings.
But six of the 14 German banks tested – Deutsche Bank, Postbank, Hypo Real Estate, mutual groups DZ and WGZ, and Landesbank Berlin – did not publish the expected detailed breakdown of sovereign debt holdings, although Postbank disclosed some information on Sunday.
…
Testing Testing – Results
Posted by Belisarius in Markets on July 23, 2010
Apparently, out of 91 European Union banks only 7 (seven!!!) have failed the test: Hypo Real Estate Holding AG, Agricultural Bank of Greece SA and five Spanish savings banks.
The test points out that the banks that failed the test have combined capital shortfall of 3.5 billion euros ($4.5 billion).
What a joke of a test…
ECRI Weekly Leading Index Down 10.5%
Posted by Belisarius in Markets on July 23, 2010
We have crossed the -10.0% critical level which has historically predicted recession with 100% accuracy.
Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
Source: Bloomberg
Testing Testing
Posted by Belisarius in Markets on July 23, 2010
Aggregate results of European bank stress tests will be published today at 17.30 CET (Central European Time)/ 11.30 New York time by the Committee of European Banking Supervisors. From then on, individual countries supervisors or banks will publish their results with no exact timeline determined.
The test will cover 91 banks in 20 countries, which account for 65% of total assets in the EU banking system.
Parameters:
- Baseline GDP path will be European Commission’s latest economic forecast ( +1.0% in 2010 and +1.7% in 2011).
- Adverse scenario will be baseline minus 3.0%.
Initial Jobless Claims At 464.000; Up 37.000
Posted by Belisarius in Markets on July 22, 2010
Initial jobless claims were reported at 464.000. The consensus was at 445.000, last week revised reading was at 427.000.
Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
Source: U.S. Department Of Labor
Baltic Dry Index At 1761, Up 1.7%
Posted by Belisarius in China, Commodities, Markets on July 20, 2010
Floating at (a temporary) bottom…
Chart 1. Baltic Dry Index
Source: Bloomberg