Archive for category Dry Bulk Weekly
Dry Bulk Weekly – July 24, 2010
Posted by Belisarius in Commodities, Dry Bulk Weekly on July 24, 2010
Baltic dry index rose 6.2% last week; Capesize Index gained 1.9%; Panamax Index rose 12.9%; Supramax and Handysizes Indexes gained 4.6% and 3.6% respectively.
Commodore Research July 21, 2010:
One of the most troubling signs in the Chinese economy at the moment is therecent (and relatively long-lasting) decline in steel prices. Steel prices have fallen consistently since theend of April, even while stockpiles and production levels have remained firm. In recent weeks, though,steel output has decreased moderately but has remained at historically robust levels. Last week’s declinein steel prices was one of the smallest week-on-week declines since April, however, and steel prices maybe on the verge of finding support.
Dry Bulk Weekly – July 18, 2010
Posted by Belisarius in Commodities, Dry Bulk Weekly on July 18, 2010
Baltic dry index fell 9.6% last week; The hardest hit were Capesizes with 20.3% loss; Supramaxes and Handysizes and lost 8.1% and 5.9%; Panamaxes gained 7.6%.
Spot cargo demand fell last week, looks like everybody’s playing wait and see game. Nothing that could reverse the losses on the horizon.
Chart 1. Baltic Dry Indexes Relative Performance
Source: Bloomberg
Chart 2. Baltic Dry Index
Source: Bloomberg
Chart 3. Baltic Dry Index Components
Source: Bloomberg
Dry Bulk Weekly – July 11, 2010
Posted by Belisarius in China, Commodities, Dry Bulk Weekly on July 11, 2010
Baltic dry index fell 16.6% last week; The hardest hit were Panamaxes with 20.6% loss; Capesizes lost 20.0% ; Handysizes and Supramaxes lost 10.3% and 8.9%.
Chinese tax rebates on hot-rolled coil and some cold-rolled coil and galvanized products will be removed starting July 15. This makes Chinese steel exports uncompetitive and it is moving the markets. Chinese steel mils now have to choose whether to reduce capacity and cost or go bankrupt.
Both steel and iron ore prices are falling due to the removal of tax rebates. Forward steel curve for some steel grades in China has moved to backwardation (spot prices higher than future prices). So, I suppose they have to liquidate inventory (and they have plenty of it) at fire-sale prices.
Dry Bulk Weekly – July 4, 2010
Posted by Belisarius in Commodities, Dry Bulk Weekly, Markets on July 4, 2010
Baltic dry index fell 8.8% last week; The hardest hit were Panamaxes with 19.6% loss; Supramaxes lost 6.0% ; Handysizes and Capesizes lost 5.4% and 3.3% .
It looks like the Baltic Dry Index was not bottoming last week after all. Panamaxes which were more stable sector than the Capsize sector played catchup and collapsed. That was not the case in the corrections during the last year or so, do we could have different kind of weakness this time.
The available shipping capacity is piling up and according to broker views we could see further losses. Analyst reports on the other hand argue that we are seeing Chinese steel mills cutting capacity as falling steel prices have squeezed profit margins bringing a temporary slowdown in demand.
Dry Bulk Weekly – June 26, 2010
Posted by Belisarius in China, Commodities, Dry Bulk Weekly on June 26, 2010
Baltic dry index fell 7.2% last week; The hardest hit, again, were Capesizes with 13.3% loss; Supramaxes and Handysizes lost 4.9% and 5.2%; Panamaxes gained 2.2% .
It looks the baltic dry index is bottoming. The action was in the capesize sector, so Chinese iron ore demand is the game as a consequence of reduced steel margins . Panamax rates are at premium versus Capesizes, so we will probably see balancing by Capsize rates rising.
Chart 1. Baltic Dry Indexes Relative Performance
Source: Bloomberg
Chart 2. Baltic Dry Index
Dry Bulk Weekly – June 21, 2010
Posted by Belisarius in Commodities, Dry Bulk Weekly on June 21, 2010
Baltic dry index fell 18.1% last week; The hardest hit, again, were Capesizes with 26.7% loss. Panamaxes lost 11.3% ; Supramaxes and Handysizes lost 7.4% and 6.5%.
China and Taiwan were on holiday from Monday to Wednesday, seasonal weakness and new-buildings hitting the markets all contributed to the dry freight rates falling. Will we have more than a seasonal weakness remains to be seen. At the moment things don’t look good.
Chart 1. Baltic Dry Indexes Relative Performance
Source: Bloomberg
Chart 2. Baltic Dry Index
Dry Bulk Weekly – June 14, 2010
Posted by Belisarius in China, Dry Bulk Weekly on June 14, 2010
Baltic dry index fell 14.5% last week; The hardest hit were Capesizes with 16.3% loss and Panamaxes with 13.3% loss; Supramaxes and Handysizes lost 12.1% and 6.5%.
Platou Markets:
Dry Bulk Weekly – June 6, 2010
Posted by Belisarius in China, Commodities, Dry Bulk Weekly on June 6, 2010
Baltic dry index fell 5.7% last week; The hardest hit sectors was Panamaxes with 8.7% loss and Supramaxes with 8.1% loss; Capesizes and Handysizes lost 2.1% and 3.5%.
Expectations running high, stockpiles high, financial crisis threatening to cause a economic crisis. Iron ore prices sliding. It looks the things are slowing down in China.
On the other hand ship prises rose 25% in last six months, a proof of excessive expectations.
Chart 1. Baltic Dry Indexes Relative Performance
Source: Bloomberg
Chart 2. Baltic Dry Index
Source: Bloomberg
Dry Bulk Weekly – May 31, 2010
Posted by Belisarius in Commodities, Dry Bulk Weekly on May 31, 2010
Baltic dry index rose 6.1% last week, again Capesizes giving the direction with 20.8% gain. Panamax, Supramax and Handysize Index all recorded losses and underperformed the broader index.
China Iron ore stockpiles again rising, Capesize rates probably fueled by coming India rain season which makes iron ore exports virtually impossible, so buyers have to turn to Australian and Brazilian mines.
Chart 1. Baltic Dry Indexes Relative Performance
Source: Bloomberg
Chart 2. Baltic Dry Index
Source: Bloomberg
Chart 3. Baltic Dry Index Components
Source: Bloomberg
Dry Bulk Weekly – May 23, 2010
Posted by Belisarius in China, Commodities, Dry Bulk Weekly on May 23, 2010
Baltic dry index fell 2.2% last week, this time on the back of 10.1% Capesize Index loss. Panamax, Supramax and Handysize Index all recorded gains and outperformed the broader index.
We had weaker spot iron ore prices, weaker China steel prices and higher iron ore and thermal coal stockpiles. Capesize activity decreased in the recent couple of weeks.
If these trends continue, a lot of questions on the global capital markets and global economy could be answered.
Chart 1. Baltic Dry Indexes Relative Performance
Source: Bloomberg
Chart 2. Baltic Dry Index