Archive for the ‘Commodities’ Category

Rig Count Update – March 7, 2013

Number of crude oil drilling rigs in the U.S. was quite stable in the last 6 months. On a year level we had a small decrease.
On world scale number of oil & gas drilling rigs changed only for the change in the U.S.

Tanker Update – March 6, 2013

Same as with dry bulk, we are long time away from recovery, but I tend to think that overcapacity is smaller in wet cargo.

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 3.4%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 1.2%.

Dry Bulk Update – March 6, 2013

I don’t see any encouraging data for the dry bulk industry, we are probably years away from recovery.

Last week Baltic Dry Index rose 4.9%; Capesize Index was down 6.9%; Panamax Index rose 14.0%; Supramax Index was up 8.9%; Handysize Index rose 8.5%.

China steel and coal inventories edged up while their prices moved down. Iron ore inventory on the other hand moved down, while price showed some signs of recovery. Overall the demand in these markets seems weak.

Tanker Weekly – January 7, 2013

The fleet is growing slower in tankers than in dry bulk and the order-book is smaller in proportion to the fleet size. The difference is that the volumes are more stable in wet cargo, so overall maybe a bit better situation than in dry bulk, but the diagnose is the same: a lot of scrapping needed to induce some recovery.

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 11.1%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 4.6%.

Dry Bulk Weekly – January 7, 2013

Almost half a year passed since my last post. I have to say I miss my blogging, so one of my New Year decisions was start over, probably not with intensity as in the best days…

In the mean time we had a wild ride with equity and most of the other prices in China, but ultimately (concerning shipping) the result is that we are about where we were 6 months ago, only the dry bulk fleet now is even bigger.

Dry Bulk Weekly – July 2, 2012

It’s been a while a posted my last post. My day job has become really exhaustive and it’s quite difficult for me to find time to write. I hope I will manage to post at least a couple of posts per week in the future.

In the mean time all things China (including shipping) has deteriorated further.

Baltic dry index rose 2.7% last week; Capesize Index was up 3.0%; Panamax Index fell 6.1%; Supramax Index was up 6.6%; Handysize Index rose 2.0%.

Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports mostly flat, price moved lower. Steel stockpiles fell further, but remained at elevated levels while price moved lower. Thermal coal inventory at all-time high, price moved lower.

Tanker Weekly – May 21, 2012

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 0.7%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 0.3%.

Dry Bulk Weekly – May 21, 2012

Baltic dry index rose 0.3% last week; Capesize Index was up 1.2%; Panamax Index fell 3.6%; Supramax Index was down 0.4%; Handysize Index rose 3.7%.

Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports mostly flat, price moved lower on risk-off. Steel stockpiles fell further, but remained at elevated levels while price moved marginally lower. Thermal coal inventory rose, price remained unchanged.

China April CPI Inflation At 3.4%; PPI Inflation At -0.7%

China Consumer Price Index was up 3.4% in April, vs. 3.4% consensus and 3.6% March reading. Food inflation rose fell from 7.5 to 7.0%.

China Producer Price Index fell to -0.7% from -0.3% in April. Consensus was at -.5%.

The chart looks outright bad.

Chinese Trade Balance Surplus Larger Than Expected In April

China trade balance was reported at USD 18.4 billion vs. USD 5.4 billion in December and USD 9.9 billion consensus. Export and import growth were running at 4.9 and 0.3 percent vs. 8.9% and 5.3% in March.

Rig Count Monthly – May 8, 2012

Massive fall in gas drilling in recent months coupled with large increase in oil drilling.

Tanker Weekly – May 7, 2012

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 2.1%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 0.6%.

Dry Bulk Weekly – May 7, 2012

Baltic dry index rose 0.1% last week; Capesize Index was up 5.1%; Panamax Index fell 12.1%; Supramax Index was up 1.5%; Handysize Index rose 2.2%.

Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports and price mostly flat. Steel stockpiles fell further, but remained at elevated levels while price remained flat. Thermal coal inventory rose a bit, price unchanged.

U.S. Freight Carloads Weekly – May 4, 2012

U.S. railroads originated 283,080 carloads, down 4.2% compared with the same week in 2011 and down 3.3% in relation to 5-year average. Week over week change was +0.3%.

U.S. Petroleum Weekly – May 4, 2012

The oil price is holding up quite well despite weaker demand and higher stockpiles. The reason for that are tightness in the brent market (which reflects in other markets via. arbitrage) and geopolitical risks (mostly related to Iran nuclear program).

 

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