Archive for category China
Dry Bulk Weekly – September 6, 2010
Posted by Belisarius in China, Commodities, Dry Bulk Weekly on September 6, 2010
Baltic dry index rose 6.0% last week; Capesize Index was up 14.1%; Panamax Index rose 4.8%; Supramax and Handysize Indexes lost 5.5% and 1.2% respectively.
China steel prices ticking up, bringing some demand to the shipping markets.
Chart 1. Baltic Dry Indexes Relative Performance
Source: Bloomberg
Chart 2. Baltic Dry Index
Source: Bloomberg
Chart 3. Baltic Dry Index Components
Source: Bloomberg
Chart 4. China Iron Ore Price Fines CFR Main China Port
Source: Bloomberg
Chart 5. China Domestic Hot Rolled Steel Sheet Spot Average Price
China Manufacturing PMI’s Edge Up In August
Posted by Belisarius in China on September 1, 2010
(For August 2010)
Official China PMI rose from 51.5 to 51.7; The HSBC/Markit PMI rose from 49.4 to 51.9. Reading bellow 50 means contraction. Equity markets cheerful on that despite absolute level flirting with contraction.
Chart 1. China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing and National Bureau of Statistics PMI / HSBC Markit China Manufacturing PMI
Source: Bloomberg
Dry Bulk Weekly – August 22, 2010
Posted by Belisarius in China, Commodities, Dry Bulk Weekly on August 22, 2010
Baltic dry index rose 11.7% last week; Capesize Index gained 11.5%; Panamax Index rose 7.9%; Supramax and Handysize Indexes gained 13.4% and 5.3% respectively.
Chinese steel mills resumed with iron ore purchases. Indian ore exports have effectively stopped because of export tariffs / rain season / illegal mining inquiries so Indian ore is being substituted with Australian and Brazilian. With the twist of speculative euphoria and unwarranted grain scare the rates ate flying. In my view this could go on for some time in short term, but in a 6 month or more time horizon too many new capsizes will come to the market and this could be the last rate bounce for years to come.
Dry Bulk Weekly – August 16, 2010
Posted by Belisarius in China, Commodities, Dry Bulk Weekly on August 16, 2010
Baltic dry index rose 21.6% last week; Capesize Index gained 46.3%; Panamax Index rose 11.0%; Supramax and Handysize Indexes gained 4.7% and 4.1% respectively.
Chinese steel mills resumed with iron ore purchases.
Chart 1. Baltic Dry Indexes Relative Performance
Source: Bloomberg
Chart 2. Baltic Dry Index
Source: Bloomberg
Chart 3. Baltic Dry Index Components
Source: Bloomberg
China Retail Sales Up 17.9% In July
Posted by Belisarius in China on August 11, 2010
China retail sales rose 17.9% in July vs. 18.5% consensus and 18.3% growth in June.
Everything slowing down…
Chart 1. China Retail Sales Growth
Source: Bloomberg
China Industrial Production Rose 13.4% In July
Posted by Belisarius in China on August 11, 2010
Industrial production growth in China fell to 13.4% in July from 13.7% in June. The consensus was also at 13.4%.
Slowing down…
Chart 1. China Industrial Production
Source: Bloomberg
China Monetary Expansion And Fixed Asset Investments Slowed Down In July
Posted by Belisarius in China on August 11, 2010
The most broad measure of money supply – M2 rose 17.6% YoY in July vs. 18.5% consensus and 18.5% growth in June. Chinese government reigning in on monetary expansion.
Chart 1. China Monetary Aggregates
Source: Bloomberg
China new loans rose CNY 632.8 billion vs. CNY 603.4 billion in June and CNY 603.4 billion
Chart 2. China New Loans
Source: Bloomberg
China CPI Inflation In July At 3.3%; China PPI Inflation In July At 4.8%
Posted by Belisarius in China on August 11, 2010
China Consumer Price Index was up 3.3% in July, right at the consensus. June reading was at 2.9%. China Producer Price Index was up 4.8% in July vs. 6.0% consensus and 6.4% June reading.
All of the consumer price increase came from food. PPI eased a bit on weaker dollar and lower commodity prices.
Consumer inflation could start to erode real purchasing power.
Chart 1. Producer & Consumer Price Indexes
Source: Bloomberg
Chinese Trade Balance Rose In July
Posted by Belisarius in China on August 10, 2010
China trade balance was reported at USD 28.7 billion vs. USD 20.0 billion in June. Export and import growth were running at 38.1 and 22.7 percent.
The imports are slowing down, I would say that will mean lower exports further down the road.
The accumulated surplus is now at USD 84.5 billion vs. USD 108.0 billion for the same last year and full year 2009 USD 196 billion.
Chart 1. China Trade Balance; Export & Import Growth
Source: Bloomberg
China NDRC Property Index Up 10.3% YoY In July
Posted by Belisarius in China on August 10, 2010
Housing and commercial real-estate prices in China are up 10.3% YoY in July compared with of 11.4% YoY rise in June. It’s slowing down…down 0.1% MoM.
Chart 1. China NDRC Property Price Index – House Price YoY
Source: Bloomberg
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