Archive for August 1st, 2011

Monthly Strategy – August 2011

Global economic growth is clearly slowing down.

U.S. Construction Spending Rose 0.2% In June

U.S. construction spending rose 0.2% In June vs. 0.1% consensus and 0.3% gain (revised from 0.6% fall) in May. On year level we are at -4.7%.

July ISM Manufacturing Index At 50.9

ISM Manufacturing Index was reported at 50.9 vs. prior reading of 55.3 and consensus of 54.5.

Large negative surprise; a culmination of deteriorating economic data.

Daily Reading – Monday, August 1, 2011

*** Bloomberg: Debt-Limit Deal to Get Congress Vote Today ***
*** JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN: US Debt Limit and Debt Versus Gold in US Dollars ***
*** Reuters: Country Sovereign Ratings ***
*** Reuters: Goldman’s new money machine: warehouses ***
*** FT Alphaville: What price UK QE2? ***
*** FT Alphaville: Do not underestimate rising EM inflation risk ***

U.S. Freight Carloads Weekly – August 1, 2011

U.S. railroads originated 291,909 carloads, up 1.8% compared with the same week in 2010 and down 4.0% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was +3.7%.

Tanker Weekly – August 1, 2011

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 1.6%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 0.9%.

July China Official PMI At 50.7; HSBC/Markit China PMI At 49.3

Official (China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing and National Bureau of Statistics) China PMI fell form 50.9 to 50.7; HSBC/Markit PMI fell from 50.1 to 49.3.

Slowdown reflected in PMI’s is (still) not reflected in industrial production growth.

Dry Bulk Weekly – August 1, 2011

Baltic dry index fell 4.5% last week; Capesize Index was down 5.0%; Panamax Index fell 1.6%; Supramax Index was down 0.9%; Handysize Index fell 3.0%.


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