Archive for July, 2011

U.S. GDP Growth in Q2 2011 At 1.3%

U.S. GDP growth for Q2 was reported at 1.3%; consensus was at 1.9%. Q1 2011 reading was revised +0.4% (initial reading was at 1.8%).

Large negative surprise. This proves that FY growth consensus is way too high.

U.S. Petroleum Weekly – July 28, 2011

Demand weakened in recent weeks, crude oil stocks rose, distillates stocks rose.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims At 398.000; Down 24.000

Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 398.000 vs. 425.000 consensus and last week revised (up 4.000) reading of 422.000.

Four week moving average declining.

Daily Reading – Thursday, July 28, 2011

*** Macro Man: Catching Dutch Disease ***
*** Calculated Risk: Fed’s Beige Book: “Pace of economic growth has moderated” ***
*** The Slope of Hope: NASDAQ False Breakout Unfolding ***
*** The Slope of Hope: Shorting GLD at Top of Wedge ***
*** The Slope of Hope: No Ship, Sherlock (Again) ***
*** The Big Picture: CFNAI — Toeing the Line ***
*** Kids Prefer Cheese: Educated Leaders, More Growth? ***

U.S. Durable Goods New Orders Fell 2.1% In June

Durable goods new orders fell 2.1% in June vs. 0.3% consensus and 1.9% rise in May.

Daily Reading – Tuesday, July 26, 2011

*** Macro Man: We can’t believe it ***
*** Econbrowser: The Bonds of August ***
*** The Big Picture: Uncle Sam asks for more today ***
*** The Big Picture: Soros Ends His Run Investing Other People’s Money ***
*** The Big Picture: The Lean StartUp ***
*** China Daily: Property loans halted in 2nd and 3rd-tier cities ***
*** The New York Times: Hulu, Billed as Tomorrow’s TV, Looks Boxed In ***

S&P/Case-Shiller 10 City Composite HPI Rose 0.1% In May

Seasonly adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller HPI 10 city rose 0.1% in May; On year level 10 city index is down 3.6%.

Daily Reading – Monday, July 25, 2011

*** Macro Man: Looking over the edge ***
*** FT Alphaville: What’s wrong with Greece bailout II… ***
*** Bloomberg: Investors Raise Bullish Commodity Bets by Most in Year as Economy Expands ***
*** Bloomberg: BP Breakup Worth $100 Billion to JPMorgan as Investors Doubt Dudley’s Plan ***

June Chicago Fed National Activity Index At -0.46

Chicago Fed National Activity Index for June was reported at -0.46 vs. revised May reading of -0.55. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 3-month moving average is at -0.6.

CFNAI is pointing to zero economic growth, when index 3-month moving average moves bellow -0.7 there is “an increasing likelihood that a recession has begun”. Very close…

Dry Bulk Weekly – July 25, 2011

Baltic dry index fell 0.1% last week; Capesize Index was up 3.6%; Panamax Index fell 9.9%; Supramax Index was down 1.2%; Handysize Index fell 1.2%.

Iron ore inventory at all time high, price unchanged. Steel inventory declining, price stable. Massive increase in coal stockpiles, price also stable.

Daily Reading – Thursday, July 14, 2011

*** The Big Picture: Bernanke speaks ***
*** The Big Picture: More or not more ***
*** self-evident: The Ron & Ben show ***
*** Gavyn Davies: Bernanke and the divided Fed ***
*** FT Alphaville: On the matter of misvalued Chinese land ***
*** FT Alphaville: Subprime selling off, again ***
*** FT Alphaville: Moody’s puts the US on review for possible downgrade ***
*** FT Alphaville: Risk on… wait, never mind ***
*** FT BeyondBRICs: China: the taxman boometh ***
*** JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN: Silver Dealer Inventory Continues to Spiral to New Lows at the Comex – Pax Goldmana ***
*** Capital Chronicle: Monkeys with guns: high frequency trading ***

Daily Reading – Wednesday, July 13, 2011

*** The Big Picture: Market focusing on 1 sentence ***
*** FT Alphaville: FOMC minutes from the June 21-22 meeting ***
*** FT Alphaville: No, the ECB can’t prop up Italy ***
*** FT Alphaville: Italy… from a high yield perspective ***
*** FT Alphaville: Are USDA crop stats unreliable? ***
*** FT Alphaville: A change in Pimco strategy? ***
*** WSJ Market Beat: Swap Spreads Hit One-Year Peak ***
*** The Slope Of Hope: The Euro and the ES ***
*** Pragmatic Capitalism: Who bought all those bonds? ***
*** Pragmatic Capitalism: The economic debacle in 4 simple charts ***
*** The Money Illusion: A million millionaires ***
*** Wired: Kinect Hackers Are Changing the Future of Robotics ***

Daily Reading – Tuesday, July 12, 2011

*** FT Alphaville: The Italian panic — rationalisation del giorno ***
*** FT Alphaville: Doing the right thing in the eurozone ***
*** FT Alphaville: Is fiscal union the only answer? ***
*** FT Alphaville: How quickly things change, Italy edition ***
*** FT Alphaville: Hoping history doesn’t repeat itself, US GDP edition ***
*** FT Alphaville: If (when) China slows down ***
*** The Big Picture: Gold Cycle, Perodicity and Bollinger Bands ***
*** The Big Picture: QOTD: Jean-Claude Trichet Is Keyser Söze ***
*** Bloomberg: Profits Climb to 51-Year Mean as S&P 500 P/E at Crisis Level ***
*** The Economist: Rooms with a view ***
*** The Wall Street Journal: Google Makes Facebook Look Socially Awkward ***
*** The American Dream: China Wants To Construct A 50 Square Mile Self-Sustaining City South Of Boise, Idaho ***
*** BBC: Why do Americans die younger than Britons? ***

Daily Reading – Monday, July 11, 2011

*** FT Alphaville: What are gold fund outflows really saying? ***
*** FT Alphaville: China’s stagflation question ***
*** FT Alphaville: An awful June employment report: payrolls up 18,000… ***
*** The Big Picture: The rug isn’t big enough ***
*** The Big Picture: Organizational Charts In Major Tech ***

Summer Vacation At Tainted Alpha

I’m on vacation, so the posting will be sporadic in next two weeks.


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