U.S. Petroleum Weekly – April 7, 2011

(For The Week Ending April 1, 2011)

Main development since latest weekly is realization that light sweet Libyan crude can’t really be substituted by Saudi Arabia and market is in short supply.

Additional to Libyan war, we have unrest in Yemen, strikes in Gabon and postponed elections in Nigeria. Combined these three countries produce 2.8 million bbl of light sweet  crude per day.

Absent of a stock market crash, crude oil is bound only up.

Crude oil stocks rose 1.9 million barrels; Gasoline stocks fell 0.4 million barrels; Distillate stocks were up 0.2 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks were down 1.1 million barrels; Other oils stocks rose 0.1 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 0.2 million barrels higher for the week.

Overall stocks levels are elevated, but in the light of supply disruptions stocks are only a secondary factor. Gasoline stocks are at lowest level since 2007  for this time of the year. If they decline further ahead of driving season this will be ultra-bullish for crude oil.



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