Archive for February 15th, 2011

U.S. Retail Sales Rose 0.3% In January

U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% in January. The consensus was at +0.5%, December reading was at +0.3% (revised from +0.5%). On year level retail sales are up 7.4%.
Most notable gainers: gasoline stations +1.4%, food & beverage stores +1.3% m-o-m; non-store retailers +1.2%; Most notable losers: building material & garden equipment -2.9%; sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores -1.3%.

February Empire State Manufacturing At 15.4

Empire State Manufacturing General Business Conditions Index for February came out at 15.4 vs. 15.0 consensus and prior reading of 11.9.

Looks like industrial production will continue expanding.

Morning Reading – Tuesday, February 15, 2011

*** Bloomberg: Google Goes After Content Firms Again ***
*** Dealbreaker: John Pauslon’s Friends Thought His Subprime Trade Was So Stupid They “Felt Sorry” For Him ***
*** The Big Picture: Judge: MERS Invalid ***
*** The Big Picture: Not Quite Overbought Yet, But . . . ***
*** The Big Picture: UltraShort Indices ***
*** JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN: James Turk On Silver, and A Possible Twist of My Own ***
*** FT Alphaville: Dear Chancellor… ***
*** FT Alphaville: Household deleveraging continues, sort of ***
*** FT BeyondBRICs: Indian inflation: mixed signals ***

Monetary Expansion In China Continues In January, But At A Slower Pace

The most broad measure of money supply – M2 rose 17.2% y-o-y in January vs. 19.0% consensus and 19.7% rise in December.
Chinese banks issued CNY 1,040.0 billion of new loans in January vs. CNY 480.7 billion in December and consensus of CNY 1,200.0 billion. The government has not provided a target for this year, so we will have to wait for a couple months to gain an insight how high it could be this year.

China CPI Inflation In January At 4.9%; PPI Inflation At 6.6%

China Consumer Price Index was up 4.6% in January, vs. 5.4% consensus and 4.6% December reading . Lower food price inflation has pushed the number lower. The CPI basket was changed (less food in it, more housing), but as far I can tell this didn’t change the reading much.

This is quite positive, I expect the monetary tightening will continue, but without the need for aggressive actions.

China Producer Price Index was up 6.6% vs. 6.2% consensus and 5.9% December reading.


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