Global Macro Perspectives
U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% in January. The consensus was at +0.5%, December reading was at +0.3% (revised from +0.5%). On year level retail sales are up 7.4%.
Most notable gainers: gasoline stations +1.4%, food & beverage stores +1.3% m-o-m; non-store retailers +1.2%; Most notable losers: building material & garden equipment -2.9%; sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores -1.3%.
Empire State Manufacturing General Business Conditions Index for February came out at 15.4 vs. 15.0 consensus and prior reading of 11.9.
Looks like industrial production will continue expanding.
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The most broad measure of money supply – M2 rose 17.2% y-o-y in January vs. 19.0% consensus and 19.7% rise in December.
Chinese banks issued CNY 1,040.0 billion of new loans in January vs. CNY 480.7 billion in December and consensus of CNY 1,200.0 billion. The government has not provided a target for this year, so we will have to wait for a couple months to gain an insight how high it could be this year.
China Consumer Price Index was up 4.6% in January, vs. 5.4% consensus and 4.6% December reading . Lower food price inflation has pushed the number lower. The CPI basket was changed (less food in it, more housing), but as far I can tell this didn’t change the reading much.
This is quite positive, I expect the monetary tightening will continue, but without the need for aggressive actions.
China Producer Price Index was up 6.6% vs. 6.2% consensus and 5.9% December reading.