Archive for February 14th, 2011

Morning Reading – Monday, February 14, 2011

*** JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN: Silver in Backwardation and the Emperor, Once Again, Nearly Naked ***
*** FT BecondBRICs: It’s official: China has overtaken Japan ***
*** FT BecondBRICs: Fund file: EM debt boost for active managers ***
*** FT Alphaville: Japan’s savings rate about to go negative, Goldman says ***
*** FT Alphaville: Philly Fed forecaster survey catches up to reality ***
*** FT Alphaville: China’s vanishing forests? ***
*** WSJ Blogs / Deal Journal: Explaining Why Goldman is the Biggest Investor in Its Own Client ***
*** Daily Finance: Is Oil Output Peaking or Not? Either Way, Cheap Oil Is Gone for Good ***
*** The Slope of Hope: Bear Capitulation? ***
*** The Slope of Hope: COT Report Week Ending 2/8 ***

New Week Intro – February 14, 2011

Weekly economic calendar.

Dry Bulk Weekly – February 14, 2011

Baltic dry index rose 12.9% last week; Capesize Index was up 13.5%; Panamax Index rose 20.2%; Supramax Index increased 3.9%; Handysize Index rose 0.9%.

Shipping rates rose after the lunar new year as Chinese buyers returned to the markets

Stockpiles of iron ore, steel and coke are rising in-sync with their respected prices. Buyers probably stockpiling in fear of even higher prices.

I would expect further gains in rates; Still keeping close watch on Egypt developments.

Rig Count Weekly – February 14, 2011

Number of crude oil drilling rigs fell for 13; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 5.

On world scale number of oil & gas drilling rigs fell for 6 in January.

Tanker Weekly – February 14, 2011

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 5.7%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 3.5%.

Some supply/demand tightens into the end of February, but my guess is that supply will emerge and rates will remain range bound.

Chinese Trade Balance Surplus Unexpectedly Declined In January

China trade balance was reported at USD 6.5 billion vs. USD 13.1 billion in December and USD 11.3 billion consensus. Export and import growth were running at 37.7 and 51.6 percent vs. 17.9% and 25.6% in December.

Trade balance shrunk on increased imports before holidays and on rising pressure from commodity prices.


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