Archive for February, 2011

Pending Home Sales Index Fell 2.8% In January

Pending home sales fell rose 2.0% in January vs. revised (down from +2.0%) fall of 3.2% in December. On year level, the index is down 1.6%.

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index For February At 71.2

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index was reported at 71.2. Consensus was at 67.5, prior reading at 68.8.

Highest reading since 1988. Prepare for a blowout ISM Manufacturing.

U.S. Personal Income Rose 1.0%; U.S. Consumer Spending Rose 0.2%

U.S. personal income rose 1.0% in January vs. 0.4% consensus and 0.4% rise in December. On y-o-y level personal income is up 4.6%.
U.S. consumer spending rose 0.2% in January vs. 0.4% consensus and 0.5% December reading (revised from 0.7%). On y-o-y level consumer spending is up 4.0%.

Morning Reading – Monday, February 28, 2011

*** JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN: Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts – Bear Raid Confirmed and the Silence of the Lambs ***
*** Calculated Risk: Buffett on Housing ***
*** The Slope Of Hope: This Market Is All Long ***
*** FT Alphaville: What Libya crude cuts mean for tanker rates ***
*** FT Alphaville: It’s an Irish bank eat Irish bank world ***
*** FT BeyondBRICs: China’s airport overkill ***

New Week Intro – February 28, 2011

Weekly economic calendar.

Dry Bulk Weekly – February 28, 2011

Baltic dry index fell 10.4% last week; Capesize Index was down 8.8%; Panamax Index fell 9.6%; Supramax Index rose 9.3%; Handysize Index was up 2.7%.

Iron ore and steel inventory at new all time high. Thermal coal inventory rising fast.

This could be a canary in a coal mine for Chinese economy…

Rig Count Weekly – February 28, 2011

Number of crude oil drilling rigs fell for 15; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 1.

Video Of The Day: Man Takes On Bank – and Wins

Conclusion: You have to be a vampire to win…

Tanker Weekly – February 26, 2011

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 11.8%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index was up 11.7%.

As with everything happening this week this was also caused by Libya unrest/civil war. Libya crude oil was primarily exported to nearby markets, so drop in Libya production will have to be substituted from producing countries which are more distant. This caused a rise in shipping rates which will probably continue.

U.S. Freight Carloads Weekly – February 25, 2011

U.S. railroads originated 296,980 carloads, up 8.4% compared with the same week in 2010 and down 0.7% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was also 8.4%.

Daily Reading – Friday, February 25, 2011

*** The Reformed Broker: Recipe for a Trading Blog ***
*** JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN: Silver Market Hit Hard With Bear Raid – The Infamous Dr. Evil Strategy ***
*** Macro Man: Is that a Pink Flamingo I See? ***
*** The Big Picture: Soc Gen’s Economic Surprise Indicator ***
*** The Big Picture: Crude Oil = $100 ***
*** FT Alphaville: Swinging on an oil VaR ***
*** FT Alphaville: Libyan oil supply, and short-term whiplash ***
*** FT Alphaville: Oily shadows of 2008 ***
*** The Slope Of Hope: AAII Sentiment Survey – Week Ending 2/22 ***

February University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Second Reading At 77.5

February University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment second reading was reported at 77.5 vs. 75.1 preliminary reading and consensus. January reading was at 74.2 .

U.S. Petroleum Weekly – February 25, 2011

I already coved Libya importance for crude oil price: Importance Of Libya For World Oil Production.

Few days later, my view is that if Libya doesn’t restart producing with full capacity soon the price of oil will go up.

In U.S.: Markets are well supplied, demand historically speaking weak, refiners cutting refining capacity and crude oil imports. WTI – Brent pricing disparity still very high.

U.S. GDP Growth in Q4 2010 Revised to 2.8%

U.S. GDP growth for Q4 was revised from 3.2% to 2.8%; consensus was at 3.3%. Q2 reading was at +2.6%.

Initial pre-release consensus was at 3.5%…we are now almost 1% lower…

U.S. Natural Gas Weekly – February 25, 2011

Working gas in storage fell 81 Bcf from previous week. The consensus was at 83 Bcf.

Storage level is 23 Bcf lower than same time year ago.

Heating season is nearing its end, the market is well supplied, so no fundamental reasons for natural gas price recovery.

This is it for this winter…


Get Adobe Flash player