U.S. Petroleum Weekly – January 27, 2011

(For The Week Ending January 21, 2011)

Crude oil stocks rose 4.8 million barrels; Gasoline stocks increased 2.4 million barrels; Distillate stocks fell 0.1 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks were down 3.3 million barrels; Other oils stocks decreased 2.1 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 2.4 million barrels higher for the week.

Refinery utilization fell 1.2% to 81.8%.

Implied crude oil demand rose 0.2 million barrels.

Crude oil and petroleum product net imports rose 0.2 million barrels to 9.7 million barrels.

Crude oil stocks rising, markets well supplied, demand weak.

Recent weeks are marked by record WTI vs. Brent crude price spread which is at record high of 11.2 USD per barrel. My best guess is that this is caused by three major factors: oversupplied U.S. market, smaller negative roll yield in Brent (or even positive roll on some contracts), coming CFTC  futures position limits.

What this means for the crude oil price? I would say WTI is better proxy for oil price than Brent.

Chart 1. Crude Oil Futures

Chart 2. Crude Oil Futures Curve

Chart 3. Crude Oil Futures Curve WTI vs. Brent

Chart 4.  WTI vs. Brent Front Month Futures Spread

Chart 5. Weekly Change in U.S. Crude Oil and Distillates Stocks

Chart 6. U.S. Crude Oil Implied Demand

Chart 7. U.S. Motor Gasoline Implied Demand

Chart 8. U.S. Distillate Fuel Implied Demand

Chart 9. U.S. Crude Oil Total Inventory

Chart 10. Motor Gasoline Total Inventory

Chart 11. Distillate Fuel Oil Total Inventory

Chart 12. U.S. Refinery Capacity, Inputs, and Production

Chart 13. Weekly U.S. Total Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Imports and Exports


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