Global Macro Perspectives
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 404.000 vs. 420.000 consensus; last week revised (down 1.000) reading was at 441.000.
Lot of volatility, but 4 week moving average has decreased a bit.
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China retail sales rose 19.1% in December vs. 18.7% consensus and also 18.7% growth in November.
China Consumer Price Index was up 4.6% in August, right at the consensus. November reading was at 5.1%. Most significant contribution to inflation deceleration came from lower food price inflation.
China Producer Price Index was up 5.9% vs. 5.7% consensus and 6.1% November reading.
CPI number looks kind of tweaked, nevertheless the inflation should again pick up in January on increased fuel prices and seasonal effects (Lunar New Year is latter this year).
China third quarter GDP growth was reported at 9.8%, slightly better than third quarter growth rate of 9.6%. This time upside came from primary sector (agriculture, forestry…) and services rather than as usually from manufacturing.
In 2010 Chinese economy grew 10.3%,
Still quite high growth rates, I expect China will try to keep it’s economy growing at near 10% growth rate this year also. Biggest headwind will be inflation and with inflation connected interest rate increases. Looking at Q4 data Chinese growth looks quite resilient.