Archive for January, 2011

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index For January At 68.8

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index was reported at 68.8. Consensus was at 65.0, prior reading at 68.6.

To repeat: Industrial production will continue to slowly expand in January.

U.S. Personal Income Rose 0.4%; U.S. Consumer Spending Rose 0.7%

U.S. personal income rose 0.4% in December vs. 0.4% consensus and 0.3% rise in November. On y-o-y level personal income is up 3.8%.

Dry Bulk Weekly – January 31, 2011

Baltic dry index fell 17.0% last week; Capesize Index was down 12.1%; Panamax Index fell 19.0%; Supramax Index decreased 15.3%; Handysize Index fell 7.1%.

Iron ore stockpiles in Chinese ports at all-time high, iron ore demand will be weaker because of lunar new year (February 3rd). All this looks quite negative for dry bulk rates.

Dry bulk companies news flow very negative with Korea line receivership and Excel maritime postponing $250 million debt offering.

We could see some improvement after the lunar new year; Keeping close watch on Egypt developments.

Morning Reading – January 31, 2011

*** FT BeyondBRICs: Egypt downgraded ***
*** Econbrowser: Geopolitical unrest and world oil markets ***
*** Reuters: RPT-FACTBOX-The Suez Canal ***
*** JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN: Despite the Miss on Expectations Today’s US 4Q GDP Number Was Still a Puffball ***
*** JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN: SP 500 and NDX March Futures Daily Chart – The Sleeper Awakens ***
*** JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN: Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts – Potential Intermediate Bottom in Gold ***
*** JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN: Gold Chart – This Is What I Thought Was Probably Going To Happen Ex Egypt ***
*** Consumer Metrics Institute: What the BEA’s Advance Estimate of Fourth Quarter 2010 GDP Was Really Telling Us ***
*** The Big Picture: Dimon: Let the big dumb banks fail ***
*** The Big Picture: Ch 18, Bailout Nation: Citigroup: Too Big to Succeed? ***
*** The Big Picture: Limerick: FOMC January Meeting ***
*** The Big Picture: Marc Faber on China, Obama, Politicians ***
*** Daily Options Report: VIX-Plosion 2011 ***
*** Seeking Delta: World Market Valuation Heat Map ***
*** Zero Hedge: Complete John Paulson 2010 Year End Letter ***

Tanker Weekly – January 30, 2011

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 0.9%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 1.7%.

My comment remains the same: too many available ships for the cargoes offered. We could see some positive freight rate developments if Egypt unrests affect Suez canal normal operation.

January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final Reading At 74.2

January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment final reading was reported at 74.2 vs. 73.0 consensus, 72.7 prior reading and 74.5 December reading.

U.S. Freight Carloads Weekly – January 28, 2011

U.S. railroads originated 282,837 carloads, up 2.0% compared with the same week in 2010 and down 3.2% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was -0.1%.

U.S. GDP Rose 3.2% in Q4 2010

U.S. GDP growth for Q4 was reported at 3.2% vs. 3.5% consensus. Q3 reading was at +2.6%.

Morning Reading – January 28, 2011

*** BBC News: China introduces first property tax for home buyers ***
*** FT BeyondBRICs: Food prices soar as EMs stockpile ***
*** FT Alphaville: Moody’s Aaa-rated American journey ***
*** FT Alphaville: Eek Eonia! ***
*** FT Alphaville: Regling looks at Manila, to help Athens ***
*** FT Alphaville: In Pharaoh’s markets ***
*** Calculated Risk: Update: Coming Existing Home Sales Revisions ***
*** The Big Picture: Coincident Indicators vs Real GDP (1959-2011) ***
*** The Big Picture: How Banking Works ***

U.S. Natural Gas Weekly – January 28, 2011

Working gas in storage fell 174 Bcf from previous week. The consensus was at 170 Bcf.

Storage level is 21 Bcf higher than same time year ago.

Daily Reading – January 27,2011

*** BoingBoing: Dubai’s artificial islands “sinking” ***
*** The Slope Of Hope: A Moment of Silence ***
*** The Big Picture: Has the Dow Entered a New Trading Range? ***
*** FT Alphaville: A record WTI-Brent spread, a new paradigm ***
*** FT Alphaville: The global inflation loop, a quick guide ***
*** FT Alphaville: Japan downgrade: The (umpteenth) denouement ***
*** FT BeyondBRICs: Egypt: bye-bye to the carry trade? ***
*** Macro Man: BDIY Underwater ***

Pending Home Sales Index Rose 2.0% In December

Pending home sales index rose 2.0% In December vs. revised (down from 3.5%) rise of 3.1% in November. On year level, the index is down 4.2%.

To repeat: Generally rising pending home sales are positive for the economy, but currently and until excess unsold housing inventory is cleared rising pending home sales index mean more foreclosed homes are being sold at depressed prices which is a sign of additional pressure on home prices.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index For December At 0.03

Chicago Fed National Activity Index for December was reported at 0.03 vs. revised November reading of -0.4. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 3-month moving average was at -0.22.

CFNAI is pointing to mild economic growth..

U.S. Durable Goods New Orders Fell 2.5% In December

Durable goods new orders fell 2.5% in December vs. 1.5% consensus and -0.1% revised increase in November (revised upwards from -1.3%)

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims At 454.000; Up 51.000

Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 454.000 vs. 405.000 consensus; last week revised (down 1.000) reading was at 403.000.

Again big spike upwards.


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