Global Macro Perspectives
(For The Week Ending October 15, 2010) Working gas in storage rose 93 Bcf from previous week. Consensus was at 88 Bcf. Storage just keeps on rising futures more and more oversold. It has to end at some time… Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5 Year Average […]
(For September 2010) Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose 0.3% in September. The consensus was at 0.3%, prior revised reading (from +0.3%) was at 0.1%. On year level LEI is up 6.0% vs. 6.8% in August. This is uber-Keynesian indicator as 43% of its value is derived from monetary factors (M2 and interest rate spread). […]
(For October 2010) Philadelphia FED General Business Conditions Index rose to 1.0. The consensus was at 2.0, prior reading at -0.7. Slightly improved, but still close to contraction. Chart 1. ISM vs. Regional Manufacturing Surveys
(For The Week Ending October 15, 2010) Crude oil stocks rose 0.7 million barrels; Gasoline stocks were up 1.2 million barrels; Distillate stocks were down 2.2 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks fell 0.7 million barrels; Other oils stocks fell 0.9 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 2.0 million barrels lower than the week […]
(For The Week Ending October 16, 2010) Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 452.000. The consensus was at 455.000, last week revised (up 13.000) reading was at 475.000. Big revision… Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
(For September 2010) China fixed asset investments rose 24.5% In September; the consensus was at 24.6%, August reading was 24.8%. This is obviously under control. Chart 1. China Fixed Assets Investment
(For September 2010) Industrial production in China rose 13.3% y-o-y in September; August reading was at 13.9%. The consensus was at 14.0%. PMI’s were wrong…. Chart 1. China Industrial Production vs. China PMI’s
(For September 2010) China retail sales rose 18.8% in September vs. 18.5% consensus and 18.4% growth in August. Chart 1. China Retail Sales Growth
(For September 2010) China Consumer Price Index was up 3.6% in September, again right at the consensus. August reading was at 3.5%. China Producer Price Index was up 4.3% in September, same as in August. Consensus was at 4.1%. Again, most of the consumer price increase came from food. Both of the inflation measures rose significantly on m-o-m […]
(For Q3 2010) China third quarter GDP growth was reported at 9.6%, slowing down from second quarter growth rate of 10.3%. Most of the slowdown can be attributed to fixed-asset investment slowdown. I have to say I expected a stronger figure given recent rise in benchmark interest rate, so I conclude that the rate increase is mainly […]