U.S. Petroleum Weekly – June 17, 2010

Crude oil stocks fell 2.0 million barrels for week ending June 25; Gasoline stocks rose 0.5 million barrels; Distillate stocks increased  2.5 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks rose 1.6 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 3.6 million barrels higher than the week before.

Refinery utilization fell from 89.4% to 88.4%.

Implied crude oil demand fell 0.3 million barrels.

Crude oil and petroleum product net imports  fell to 10.0 million barrels. All categories of petroleum stocks are still at extremely elevated levels. If we don’t have meaningful draw during summer (it doesn’t look we will have it) we could be heading to all time high stockpiles latter this year.

If the world economy is really slowing down, the price could broke this recession lows.

Chart 1. Crude Oil Futures

Source: Bloomberg

Chart 2. Crude Oil Futures Curve

Source: Bloomberg

Chart 3. Weekly Change in U.S. Crude Oil and Distillates Stocks

Source: EIA

Chart 4. Crude Oil, Gasoline and Distillate Fuel Implied Demand

Source: DOE

Chart 5. U.S. Total Crude Oil, Gasoline and Distillate Ending Stocks

Source: EIA

Chart 6. U.S. Refinery Capacity, Inputs, and Production

Source: EIA

Chart 7. Weekly U.S. Total Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Imports and Exports

Source: EIA

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