Archive for July, 2010

Tanker Weekly – July 31, 2010

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 7.5%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 5.5%. Nothing new here…supply overweighting demand. Chart 1. Baltic Tanker Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Tanker Indexes

ECRI Weekly Leading Index Down 10.7%

ECRI Weekly Leading Index is down 10.7%. Prior reading was at -10.5%. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index

U.S. GDP Rose 2.4% in Q2 2010

U.S. GDP Rose 2.4% in Q2 2010. The consensus was at 2.6%, Q1 reading was at 2.7%. Another miss, but not a big one (jet). Chart 1. U.S. Real GDP & Percent Change

ATA For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index Falls For Two Consecutive Months

Another data point pointing to a slowdown…. From the press release: The American Trucking Associations’ advance seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index decreased 1.4 percent in June, although May’s reduction was revised from 0.6 percent to just 0.1 percent.  May and June marked the first back-to-back contractions since March and April 2009.  The latest […]

Mind The Gap

It remains to be seen whether the today’s U.S. GDP reading (for Q2) will flash slowdown, but no doubt remains that this quarter (Q3) will be ugly. Chart 1. Consumer Metrics Institute‘s Growth Index vs. Official Quarterly GDP Growth Rates

Initial Jobless Claims At 457.000; Down 11.000

Initial jobless claims were reported at 457.000. The consensus was at 460.000, last week revised reading was at 468.000. Again, stubbornly high…. Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims

Lower Highs, Higher Lows

This is supposed to be bearish. Chart 1. S&P 500

U.S. Petroleum Weekly – July 29, 2010

Crude oil stocks rose 7.3 million barrels for week ending July 16; Gasoline stocks remained unchanged; Distillate stocks increased  0.9 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks rose 0.5 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 9.0 million barrels higher than the week before. Refinery utilization fell from 91.5% to 90.6%. Implied crude oil demand was […]

MBA Mortgage Applications Fell 4.4%

MBA mortgage applications fell 4.4% for week ending July 23, the prior reading was an increase of 7.6%. Refinance index fell 5.9%; Purchase index rose 2.0%. Chart 1. MBA Mortgage Applications

Durable Goods Orders Fell 1.0% In June

Durable good orders fell 1.0% in June vs. +1.0% consensus and -1.1% increase in May. Transportation taken out the figure was a decrease of 0.6% vs. 0.6% rise in May and +0.4% consensus. Big miss, with no appropriate market reaction. Chart 1. U.S. Durable Goods Orders Chart 2. U.S. Durable Goods Orders Ex. Transportation

Conference Board Consumer Confidence For July At 50.4

Conference Board consumer confidence came out at 50.4 vs. 51.0 consensus and 54.3 reading for June. Chart 1. Conference Board Consumer Confidence

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes Rose in May

S&P/Case-Shiller HPI 10 city composite rose 1.7% in May; S&P/Case-Shiller 20 HPI composite rose 1.3% in May. Seasonly adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller HPI 10 city composite rose 0.5%; Seasonly adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller HPI 20 city composite also rose 0.5%. Chart 1. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 10 Chart 2. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20

New Home Sales Rose 23.6% In June

New home sales rose 23.6% in June to 330.000, the consensus was  at 300.000, prior reading (revised downward 33.000) was at 267.000 (!!! worst reading on record). Wondering if they switched 33.000 from May revision to June? Chart 1. New Home Sales

Chicago Fed National Activity Index For June At -0.63

Chicago Fed National Activity Index For June was reported at -0.63 vs. May reading of +0.28. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 3-month moving average was at -0.05. When the CFNAI three month moving average value moves below–0.70 following a period of economic expansion, there is an increasing likelihoodthat a recession has begun. Report. Led by deterioration in […]

German Banks Unwilling To Release Sovereign Debt Holdings

Today’s Financial Times front-page: Germany accused of reneging on bank tests. The tests – designed to restore nervous markets’ faith in European banks, shaken by the near-default of Greece this year – were supposed to be accompanied by full disclosure of each bank’s sovereign debt holdings. But six of the 14 German banks tested – Deutsche Bank, Postbank, […]


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