ECRI Weekly Index Debate
The usefulness of ECRI weekly leading index is widely debated today. The debate was started by Bank of America Merrill Lynch biased report: ECRI: Not the “Holy Grail”.
David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff + Associates in todays Breakfast with Dave:
What is fascinating is how the ECRI, which was celebrated by Wall Street research houses a year ago, is being maligned today for acting as an impostor — not the indicator it is advertised to be because it gets re-jigged to fit the cycle.
From our lens, there is nothing wrong in trying to improve the predictive abilities of these leading indicators. Still — it is a comment on how Wall Street researchers are incentivized to be bullish because nobody we know criticized the ECRI as it bounced off the lows (not least of which our debating pal, James Grant). For a truly wonderful critique of the ballyhooed report that was released yesterday basically accusing the ECRI index as fitting the data points to the cycle – not the case, by the way – have a look at ECRI Weekly Indicators Widely Misunderstood that made it to our friend Barry Ritholtz’s blog (“The Big Picture”).
Big Picture post: ECRI Weekly Leading Indicators Widely Misunderstood.