Global Macro Perspectives
Crude oil stocks rose 2.9 million barrels for week ending 26 March; Gasoline stocks increased for 0.3 million barrels; Distillate stocks fell 1.0 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks rose 0.5 million barrels; Other oils stocks increased 0.1 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks rose 3.2 million barrels. Refinery utilization rose from 81.1% to 82.6%. […]
Despite the much hyped expected positive print the reported figure is -23.000 private job loss in March. Chart 1. ADP National Employment
Conference Board consumer confidence came out at 52.5 vs. 50 consensus and 46 reading for February. Chart 1. Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Both 10 city and 20 composites rose 0.3% in January. Keeping in mind that this is 3 month rolling average. Chart 1. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 10 Chart 2. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20
In a sign of strength of iron ore demand iron ore producers and Asian Mills have ended 40 year old annual pricing system and moved to short term pricing. Bloomberg story: Vale, BHP End Annual Ore Talks; Vale Wins 90% Jump. Iron ore producers have managed to get Asian steel mills to agree that iron […]
Only two additional natural gas drilling rigs last week were added to already operating ones: 15 additional crude oil rigs. Chart 1. Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Change Chart 2. Baker Hughes Weekly U.S. Rig Count Chart 3. Baker Hughes Monthly World Rig Count
Although I don’t agree with every piece of trading advice it can be derived from the piece; todays economic commentary by Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg is one of the most impressive research pieces I have ever read. Link.
Personal income was flat in February vs. the +0.1 consensus and January reading of also +0.1%. Consumer spending for February came out at consensus of 0.3%; the prior reading was 0.5%. Anemic figures. Chart 1. U.S. Personal Income Chart 2. U.S. Consumer Spending
Important U.S. earnings this week: Monday: Cal-Maine Foods (CALM), Neogen (NEOG), Oxford Industries (OXM), Skyline (SKY), Apollo Group (APOL), AZZ (AZZ), Kid Brands (KID) Tuesday: HB Fuller (FUL), SAIC (SAI) Wednesday: Cascade (CASC), Immucor (BLUD), Micron Technology (MU), Global Payments (GPN), Lindsay Corporation (LNN), UniFirst (UNF), Acuity Brands (AYI) Thursday: CarMax (KMX), Jos. A Bank […]
Baltic dry index fell 8.3% in the last week. Handysize Index outperformed while Capesize, Panamax and Supramax Index all underperformed. The iron ore price fixing saga continues. Chinese steel mills have moved its iron ore sourcing from Brazil and partially Australia to India in an effort to pressure primarily Vale into iron ore price concessions. […]
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 2.2% last week while Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 3.2%. Product rates underperformed crude rates by a wide margin in recent couple months. It was due to collapse of Atlantic product arbitrage and decrease in petrochemical feedstock demand (unfavorable margins). Both possible indication of a weaker demand. Chart 1. Baltic […]
Consumer sentiment for March was at 73.6 vs. 73 consensus and 72.5 prior reading. Chart 1. University of Michigan/Reuters Consumer Sentiment
Apparently the agreement on potential bailout of Greece has been reached. Bloomberg story: Sarkozy Reverse on German IMF Demand Caps Losing Week. The whole story with the Greece is stupid, they have not defaulted jet, so they do not have to be saved. Only thing it could help them in the moment is an EU […]
All the fuss yesterday was because of this: When these tools are used to drain reserves from the banking system, they do so by replacing bank reserves with other liabilities; the asset side and the overall size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet remain unchanged. If necessary, as a means of applying monetary restraint, the […]
Working gas in storage rose 11 Bcf from previous week. Price vise the natural gas futures are getting heavily oversold. Chart 1. Natural Gas Futures Chart 2. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5 Year Average