Tainted Alpha

Tainted Alpha is back after Christmas, first, I’ll update the weeklies. I hope you’ve all had a nice Christmas!

Crude oil stocks fell 4.8 million barrels for week ending 18 December; Gasoline stocks decreased 0.8 million barrels; Distillate stocks fell 3 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks fell 3.4 million barrels; Other oils were down 3.4 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks decreased 14.1 million barrels.

Refinery utilization remained flat at 80 %.

Crude oil and petroleum product net imports are at the lowest level in a decade.

All categories of petroleum stocks are still at elevated levels.

Reduced crude oil imports and reduced refinery operating capacity coupled with cold weather have started to reduce stocks. This is not a result of improved demand, but only a consequence of refiners adapting to the new levels of demand. Crude oil price moved to the upper end of trading range, I suspect that falling stocks will keep the price of crude oil at around $80 for now.

Chart 1. Crude Oil Futures

Chart 2. Change in U.S. Crude Oil and Distillates Stocks

Chart 3. U.S. Total Crude Oil, Gasoline and Distillate Ending Stocks

Chart 4. U.S. Refinery Capacity, Inputs, and Production

Chart 5. Weekly U.S. Total Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Imports and Exports

Crude Oil

This entry was posted on Saturday, December 26th, 2009 at 2:19 pm and is filed under U.S. Petroleum Weekly. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.