Tainted Alpha

Crude oil broke out the range to the downside. The move is surprisingly strong despite some positive stock data this week.

Crude oil stocks fell 3.8 million barrels; Gasoline stocks rose 2.3 million barrels; Distillate stocks rose 1.6 million barrels; Other oils were down 1 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks fell 3.8 million barrels.

Stocks broadly speaking are still at elevated levels across all categories.

Refinery utilization increased substantially to 81.1% from 79.7% the week before. I suspect that will fuel further crude oil stock draw next week and an increase in gasoline and distillates.

Crude oil and petroleum product net imports again at the lowest levels in a decade.

To sum up, no signs of a returning demand, I would say that oil price weakness could continue.

Chart 1. Crude Oil Futures (Weekly)

Chart 2. Change in U.S. Crude Oil and Distillates Stocks

Chart 3. U.S. Total Crude Oil, Gasoline and Distillate Ending Stocks

Chart 4. U.S. Refinery Capacity, Inputs, and Production

Chart 5. Weekly U.S. Total Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Imports and Exports

Crude Oil

This entry was posted on Wednesday, December 9th, 2009 at 4:52 pm and is filed under Commodities, U.S. Petroleum Weekly. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.