Nouriel Roubini: Big Crash Coming

I don’t like the hype that follows Nouriel Roubini; ha had a strike of luck (mostly because he was sticking to his same forecasts for years) and now the media grants him excess attention. Never mind, the point I am getting to, is that his thoughts on commodities and economy are almost identical to concepts I am writing about on my blog. Indexuniverse.com interview: Nouriel Roubini: Big Crash Coming.

Oil and commodities view:

There are improving fundamentals. There is a global recovery. But that justifies oil going from $30 to maybe $50. I think the other $30 is all speculative demand feeding on it—speculators and herding behavior. Last year, when oil was at $145, that killed the global economy. I worry that oil is going to go up above $100 for reasons that have nothing to do with the fundamentals of supply and demand. Oil at $100 would have the same negative effects on the global economy as oil did at $145 last year.

I could make a similar argument for other commodity prices. In my view, rising commodity prices are not justified by the fundamentals.

The part on futures regulation follows. I think contrary; no regulation here means efficient markets.

Have to rethink on my views; thinking the same as scientists usually results in flawed decisions.

,

This entry was posted on Monday, October 26th, 2009 at 9:14 am and is filed under Markets. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

Comments are closed.

 

Get Adobe Flash player