Nervous
Markets are feeling nervous, I’m feeling nervous. VIX is at the lower bottom of the short term range, it looks it could stay in the range. Gold is hitting new highs today, it’s overbought a little, maybe some consolidation there needed if it is bound to stay at today’s levels.
Chart 1. Gold Futures
Oil is trading at the higher end of the short term range. We haven’t had much needed stockpiles reduction of both crude oil and derivatives during the summer. Refinery utilization rates are low and refiners are closing facilities. Bloomberg story: Sunoco, Valero Shut Plants as Fuel Glut Beats Winter. Enough for me to start a short crude oil position. I bought USO January 36 puts; with usual stop loss order. The risk is the weakening dollar as I think fundamentals (which are really weak) are not the mayor market mover jet.
Chart 2. United States Oil Fund
Europe today trades marginally lower on German Investor Confidence which drop to 56 from 57.7 last month. Bloomberg story: German Investor Sentiment Drops on Economic ‘Realism’.
Much famous Meredith Whitney cut Goldman Sachs from Buy to Neutral. Brave. Ms. Whitney has had the streak of winning calls, we will see if she’s right this time. Bloomberg story: Goldman Sachs Cut to ‘Neutral’ by Meredith Whitney. She has been interviewed by CNBC recently, bearish stance on banking, claims that the health of U.S. banking is questionable. I agree.
Today’s Johnson & Johnson earnings offered little or no surprise EPS $1.30 vs, $1.13 consensus. Revenue fell 5.3%, shares are trading down 2.4% at the moment on revenue concerns.
Crude Oil, German Investor Confidence, Gold, Johnson & Johnson, Meredith Whitney, United States Oil Fund (USO), VIX